Global grain production forecast to increase in 2020/21

May 18, 2020 - Global corn production in 2020/21 is projected up, primarily driven by a recovery in area for the United States, according to a report published by USDA.

For major exporters, the United States, Brazil, and Ukraine are all projected to have record crops while Argentina has another near-record crop. Global production is forecast to exceed consumption for the first time in 4 years. Both feed and non-feed use are expected to grow under exceptionally low prices, spurring expansion in global trade.

Ending stocks are projected up as the United States is set to have the highest ending stocks since 1987/88, offsetting a decline in China.

For 2020/21, global wheat production is forecast up with larger crops in most major exporting countries. Production for Argentina, Australia, Canada, Kazakhstan, and Russia is forecast higher than the previous year. Overall consumption is up with larger Food, Seed, and Industrial (FSI) use more than offsetting reduced feed and residual use.

Food consumption continues to rise due to population growth and changing diets, especially in developing regions of Asia. Feed use is expected lower this year as wheat prices are expected to be less competitive with corn. Consumption, production, trade, and stocks are all forecast to reach records.

China is still expected to represent more than half of global wheat stocks.

For 2020/21, global rice production is forecast up with larger crops in China, Southeast Asia, and the United States. Global consumption is also forecast to rise, particularly in China, India, and Sub-Saharan Africa. Global trade is forecast up at the third largest volume. The Philippines will be the top importer, driven by lower domestic production.

Global stocks are also forecast to rise to record levels, driven primarily by continued expansion in India’s government-held stocks. The country now accounts for more than one-fifth of global stocks, while China still holds the majority.