Global oilseed output to drop on lower sunflowerseed production

October 14, 2020 - Global 2020/21 oilseed production is forecast at 605.5 million tons, down 3.7 million from September, according to USDA GAIN report.

Reduced sunflowerseed production, principally in Ukraine, but also in the EU, Argentina, and Moldova, and lower soybean production in the United States account for all the decline this month as small changes in the remaining oilseeds are mostly offsetting.

Lower EU sunflowerseed production is a result of dry growing conditions reflected in early harvest data. Declines in Argentina reflect planting intentions for the coming crop.

Soybean production in the United States is lowered 1.2 million to 116.2 million tons in response to reduced acreage harvested. Oilseed trade is higher on increased China imports and exports from the United States.

Global ending stocks are down 5.8 million tons driven by reduced soybean carryin and production in the United States, higher U.S. soybean exports and lower global sunflowerseed stocks reflecting production declines.

Protein meal and oil trade is marginally lower, reflecting the smaller crush and lower exports by Ukraine in response to reduced sunflowerseed availability. However, total oilseed meal production and consumption are up on growing demand for soybean meal in China and higher rape meal consumption in China and the European Union.

Global oil consumption is raised this month on rising demand in China, principally for soybean oil. The projected U.S. seasonaverage farm price for soybeans is raised 55 cents to $9.80 per bushel in response to recent price strength as strong demand by China and concerns over dry weather in South America lead to a tighter global supply situation. This price is $1.45/bu above the August forecast of $8.35/bu.