Vietnam’s animal feed demand on road to recovery

October 22, 2020 - Vietnam’s animal feed demand continued to be weigh down by the impact of African Swine Fever (ASF), although there are signs of recovery in the sector, according to the GAIN report published by USDA.

According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD), as of July 2020, the total swine population reached 25.18 million heads, up 7.7 percent from January 1.

Post increases its total feed demand estimate in MY2019/20 to 27.1 million metric tons (MMT) and to 28.1 MMT in MY2020/21 because of swine repopulation, along with growth in the poultry and aquaculture sectors.

This report reflects a slight increase in post’s estimate for soybean meal feed consumption to 5.9 MMT in MY2019/20 and 6.1 MMT in MY2020/21.

Post lowers its estimate for soybean imports to 1.85 MMT in MY2019/20 and to 2 MMT in MY2020/21 due to lower forecasted soybean consumption for food use.

Vietnam’s soybean consumption for food use is lowered in MY2019/20 and MY2020/21 to 480 TMT and 500 TMT respectively. Additionally, post revises down total crushing capacity in Vietnam to 1.4 MMT in MY2020/21.

Soy oil demand is increasing due to more home cooking, while palm oil demand is decreasing due to closures of restaurants and canteens caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Vietnam’s total vegetable oil consumption is estimated to remain flat in MY2019/20 and forecast to increase by three percent in MY2020/21.