2020/21 global oilseed output forecast at 595 million mt

February 16, 2021 - Global 2020/21 oilseed production is forecast at 595 million tons, over 600,000 tons above January, according to the GAIN report published by USDA.

Higher cottonseed and slightly higher sunflower, soybean, and rapeseed production more than offsets small declines for palm kernel and peanut. The global cottonseed crop is up more than 500,000 tons with higher production in China, Pakistan, and others offsetting lower production in India.

Global oilseed exports, at 194 million tons, are up over 1 million tons mostly on higher Canada rapeseed and U.S. soybean trade. Oilseed crush is raised over 700,000 tons to 513 million. Larger rapeseed, cottonseed, sunflowerseed, and peanut crush more than offset lower soybean crush (excluding the addition of Lebanon).

Global oilseed stocks are down nearly 1 million tons primarily on lower soybean stocks in the United States, Brazil, and Canada, partially offset by higher stocks in Argentina. Protein meal production and consumption are fractionally higher while stocks fell slightly from January as all adjustments are small. Protein meal exports are raised 600,000 tons due in part to higher Argentina soybean meal shipments.

Global vegetable oil production, consumption, and trade are fractionally higher while stocks grew almost 1 million tons on a rise in palm and rapeseed oil carryin from 2019/20. The projected U.S. season-average farm price for soybeans is unchanged at $11.15 per bushel.