Rabobank: China's pork imports in 2021 down; pork output flat for Europe

February 18, 2021 - Asia and North and South America are the regions where the world's pork supply will see growth, with Europe expected to experience more challenges, according to Rabobank.

"While China continues to dominate global trade, China's expected reduction in imports in 2021 will have ramifications for the rest of the world, especially in Europe, where trade bans on Germany are boosting local supply and weighing on the market," said Chenjun Pan, Rabobank's senior analyst (animal protein).

Rabobank highlighted the following key developments:

China: With rising production, China's imports will decline from the record high of 2020, impacting the rest of the world;

The United States: Strong domestic and export demand is supporting continued strength in hog prices. Rising feed and regulatory costs could pressure margins;

Europe: Pork production is expected to be flat or down slightly in 2021, on lower export demand, a slow recovery of local demand due to COVID-19, and ongoing African swine fever threats in eastern Europe and Germany;

Brazil: The country's hog production is expected to increase by 2.5% in 2021 in response to local demand recovery and another strong year for exports.