Strong global oilseed consumption growth in 2021/22 despite high prices

May 20, 2021 - Global oilseed production is forecast to grow 5 percent in 2021/22, primarily on growth in soybean output in the United States and South America, according to the GAIN report published by USDA.

Global oilseed production is projected to reach 632 million tons on record plantings. Soybean production is forecast to rise 23 million tons to 386 million, a 6-percent increase. Production of all oilseeds is forecast to increase, with all but cottonseed and rapeseed reaching at least 10-year records.

Global oilseed consumption is forecast to rise 3 percent in 2021/22, the strongest yearly gain since 2019/20, led by higher China soybean demand reflecting a rebuilding of feed demand following African swine fever. Soybean crush and feed waste consumption are projected to account for more than half of the growth in global oilseed use.

Sunflowerseed consumption is up 9 percent and cottonseed consumption up 3 percent as supplies rebound from the current year shortfalls. Global oilseed trade is forecast higher mostly on greater soybean demand from China, which is projected to account for 60 percent of global soybean imports.

Trade in soybeans and sunflowerseed is expected to rise modestly while cottonseed exports are forecast up to a 10-year high on larger exportable supplies. Global ending stocks are projected to rise modestly on growing China stocks and production gains in exporting countries. This increase is coming as the market rebounds from currently tight stocks which have driven soybean prices to an 8-year high.